In the 1860’s the US oil price was above $110 per barrel. We are now at similarly high levels.

This is not the problem. Our problem is that from 1870 to 1970 the oil price flat-lined, in absolute and relative terms, and in that century of cheap oil we configured ll our modern industries to rely on it

We use fossil fuels to plant, feed, protect, harvest, process and deliver our foodstuffs. So much so, the actual food often only delivers around 5 to 10 percent of food energy from the input fossil fuel that was used to create it. We have the situation that it is better, in energy efficiency terms even if not for health for four US citizens to ride in a Toyota Prius than to walk. It uses less oil than we consume.

As originally flagged up by M. King Hubbert in 1956, oil supplies have already peaked in some areas, including the US and Europe. Even the naysayers at the International Energy Authority conceded last summer that oil supplies will become seriously constricted around 2012.

This is not the end of oil, but the end of cheap and easy oil. So in turn, it is the end of cheap and easy food. The oil gap, between supply and demand will become a food gap.

It is therefore bizarre to reflect on two foundation points adopted by Stern, and later maintained by the derivative transport review led by Professor Julia King. These are that transport is expected to remain oil-based for several decades. Where is this doubling of oil supplies going to come from? And why do we not hear more about it? Because CEOs are only around for about three to five years.

Which CEO is going to invite the consequent damage to popularity, stock price, share options, pension or legacy by announcing life is soon going to change significantly for the worse?